Thursday, 13 October 2011

Rupee see-saws tracking choppy shares; data watched


The rupee seesawed on Monday, tracking choppy domestic shares ahead of crucial September inflation data, with mild gains in the euro preventing a sharp fall.
At 11:06 a.m. (0536 GMT), the partially convertible rupee was at 49.09/10 per dollar, from Thursday's close of 49.12/13 after moving in a 49.0650 to 49.22 range so far.
"The unit recovered from the day's lows tailing a bounce back in stocks which seems to lack conviction. A retracement in the euro is also supporting the local unit," said Ashtosh Raina, head of foreign exchange trade at HDFC Bank.
Raina expects rupee to trade in a 49.00-49.30 range in the day.
Indian shares pulled higher after a sluggish start as investors awaited monthly inflation due around noon (0630 GMT), which would set the tone for the central bank's monetary stance at its policy review on Oct. 25.
The wholesale price index probably rose 9.70 percent in September from a year earlier, easing slightly from 9.78 percent in August, a Reuters poll showed.
The euro was trading at $1.3790, compared with $1.3737 when the rupee closed on Thursday. The index of the dollar against six major currencies was at 76.987 points, below 77.204 points on Thursday.
G20 finance chiefs and central bank heads from the world's biggest economies meet in Paris on Friday needing to find a solution to a deepening euro zone debt crisis that has fanned fears of a global recession.
However, markets should not expect anything concrete from the talks this week on the design of a plan to deal with Greek and European debt, a senior Canadian finance official said on Thursday.
Earlier, Fitch cut the ratings of UBS AG and placed several other European banks on credit watch negative.
Investors, however, pared their overtly bearish bets as they did not see the flurry of ratings actions as having a lasting negative impact on the euro.
The one-month onshore forward premium on the rupee was at 22.25 points from 21.50 on Thursday, the three-month premium was at 60.25 points from 57.50 points and the one-year premium was 137.25 points, from 126.00.
The one-month offshore non-deliverable forward contracts were quoted at 49.07, steady with the spot rupee rate.
In the currency futures market the most traded near-month dollar-rupee contracts on the National Stock Exchange, the MCX-SX and the United Stock Exchange were at 49.2075, 49.2100 and 49.2200 respectively. The total traded volume on the three exchanges was $976 million.

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